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Betting Tips: Boosted Treble from Lars Sivertsen

The goals are still flowing in the PL, which is great. It’s great for entertainment, and it’s been great for us since we often look to the goal markets on this blog. No surprises this week, we’re going to be doing more of it! Here is a boosted treble and three singles that I like this weekend.

20 Feb | analysis | BY George Fotev | MIN READ TIME |
Betting Tips: Boosted Treble from Lars Sivertsen

Boosted treble of the week

Newcastle – Bournemouth

Eddie Howe’s Newcastle have started getting some results recently, and will still feel they have a chance to salvage the season and secure a CL qualifying place. Four wins, one draw and one defeat in their last six in all competitions certainly constitutes improvement after their disastrous run over the holiday season. Having said that, they are still conceding a lot of chances. There isn’t an awful lot of pace in Howe’s preferred backline of Trippier, Schar, Botman and Burn, and with the team favouring a front-foot approach they are always at risk of getting caught on the break whenever their press fails. This, if nothing else, makes for entertaining games for the neutral.

It also makes it likely we’ll continue to see goals being scored at either end of the pitch. “Both teams to score” has landed in six straight PL games involving Newcastle United, and I don’t think that streak will snap here. Bournemouth have scored in 17 out of their last 18 games in all competitions, but they’ve also kept just one clean sheet in their last seven.

Injuries up front are a concern for Newcastle, with both Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson set to miss out. At home, against a pretty leaky Bournemouth team, it would still be a shock to see Newcastle draw a blank. For me this has “both teams to score” written all over it, so I’m happy to make that the first pick of our weekly boosted treble.

Tottenham – Wolves

Next we’re heading to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where Ange Postecoglou’s entertainers take on Wolves. Spurs have been a terrific watch all season, and fourth place is a higher league position than most would have expected when Harry Kane left for Bavaria. Their “expected goals” numbers also suggest that Spurs may be slightly fortunate to find themselves in such a lofty position in the league, with stats website Fbref showing Spurs as having just the 10th best xG difference in the league.

This is a team with above average finishers and goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario is having a terrific season, so some overperformance in relation to xG is perhaps to be expected. That being said, it’s hard to get away from the basic fact that this Spurs team are frequently thrilling going forward but often open and chaotic at the back. Both first choice central defenders being fit and available, for once, helps – though it will be interesting to see how Spurs cope without either of their first choice fullbacks. Both Destiny Udogie and Pedro Porro are set to miss out here, though it is probably more of a blow to Spurs in the attacking phase.

Wolves should, on paper, be a particularly awkward opponent for Spurs.

They’re not a low block team as such, but their biggest strength definitely lies in transitions. Pedro Neto is one of the best dribblers and ball-carriers in the league, while it’s easy to imagine the ever-busy Hwang Hee-Chan disrupting Spurs’ build-up efforts. It’s unclear how exactly personnel change at fullback will affect Spurs here, but so far Postecoglou has been reluctant to alter his tactics because of missing players. So we should still see Spurs to leave a lot of space unoccupied down the flanks, and you’d expect Pedro Neto to enjoy himself here. In fact, Pedro Neto to score (4.20) and Pedro Neto to have an assist (3.85) are both potentially intriguing side bets here.

But we’re going to keep it much more simple and go for goals.

Tottenham games have produced an average of 3.63 goals so far this season. The regular fullbacks being absent could have a negative impact on this, but then Wolves are an awkward tactical match-up for them and I’d expect the visitors to score at least once. All of which leads me to think that it’s worth taking a punt on over 3.5 goals here. I think we’ll have another goal-tastic encounter involving Spurs here.

Luton – Manchester United

Luton suffered a hugely disappointing defeat to Sheffield United last weekend, in a game that was very unusual for them. They had 75% possession, when their average this season is 39%. They had 20 shots, when their average is 11. And they displayed the kind of clumsy and slack defending many will have feared from them ahead of the season, but that we mostly haven’t seen. The temptation is to chalk it up as a bad day at the office and the team not dealing particularly well with a game that played out in a very unfamiliar way for them.

Manchester United have started getting results. They’ve now gone six games without losing in all competitions, whereas before this their longest undefeated run was just three games. Much of this must be put down to improvements in the attacking department, with their big Danish striker in particular making a big difference. In their last four games, United have scored an impressive 13 goals. They haven’t always looked impressive, though, with the team regularly conceding a lot of chances as well.

Luton have scored in 11 out of 12 games at home this season, and there is very little to suggest that United are an usually strong defensive outfit. In fact, quite the opposite. But we also have to acknowledge recent improvements in their attack, so the simple answer here is to back “both teams to score”. I’m making that the third and last pick for our weekly boosted treble.

Normally a treble with “both teams to score” in NewcastleBournemouth and LutonManchester United, plus “over 3.5 goals” in Tottenham – Wolves, would get you a price of 4.57. But Betsson have boosted this price to 5.50!

Selected singles

Tottenham – Wolves

We’re going to take a bit of a risk here because we don’t know yet how the absences of Udogie and Porro will affect Spurs, but with various players back from international duty and James Maddison back to full fitness I’m still pretty optimistic on their behalf. Wolves are an awkward tactical matchup and no pushovers, but Spurs are on a reasonable run of form so I think they can win this. We’re going to pick a bet that would have landed in five out of Tottenham’s last seven games, which is “Tottenham to win + both teams to score”.

Betsson are offering a price of 2.60 on this outcome, and given how often we’ve been seeing Spurs win without keeping a clean sheet lately I think this is worth a punt this weekend.

Brentford – Liverpool

At the risk of being predictable and repetitive, we’re going to hit the same bet in Brentford versus Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp’s men have won eight out of their last ten games, but they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last seven. They’ve been the best attacking team in the league this season, but their defense has been less than flawless.

Brentford for their part have scored in eight out of their last nine home games. Ivan Toney returning from his ban has added to their attacking capabilities, and he should prove a particularly useful outlet against Liverpool. Toney, after all, gives Brentford the option of just bypassing the Liverpool press by going long.

Brentford are fairly reliable goal scorers at home, but I’m not convinced they have enough to get a result against a scary and versatile Liverpool attack. That makes “Liverpool + both teams to score” at a price of 2.68 a bet worth checking out this weekend!

Nottingham Forest – West Ham

Lastly we are heading to the City Ground where Nottingham Forest are hosting West Ham. Things are starting to look a bit ominous for the hosts, who haven’t won in their last six games in all competitions.

The initial optimism sparked by manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s two first games at the helm, wins against Newcastle and Manchester United, has given way to concern. Forest are now just two points above the relegation zone, with a possible points deduction for overspending lurking on the horizon.

West Ham are themselves enduring something of a crisis. They still sit 8th in the table, which normally would constitute a fine season for West Ham. But they haven’t won in seven games in all competitions, and the fanbase is deeply divided on the subject of their manager David Moyes. The often turgid football on display means that many fans have very little patience for poor results, and lately the results have been just that. West Ham’s “expected goals” numbers have been significantly worse than their league position all season, so some regression was always going to happen. Injury to Lucas Paqueta has exacerbated the problem, with the Brazilian being a much needed source of creativity in the West Ham attack.

Nottingham Forest were a little unfortunate to lose to Newcastle United, and there were a lot of positives to take from that performance. I still wouldn’t go quite so far as to back them to get a win here. West Ham’s abysmal showing against Arsenal last weekend is the kind of defeat that can actually galvanize the team. Whether you rate David Moyes or not, at some point it becomes a matter of professional pride.

I’m sure you will all be shocked to learn that my preferred angle is instead, wait for it, “both teams to score”. Both teams to score has landed in seven straight Nottingham Forest games in the league. West Ham drawn a blank in their last two, but they were very unfortunate to do so away to Manchester United and the Arsenal game was just a total collapse. Defensive football or not, West Ham have been fairly reliable goalscorers this season – with counters and set pieces being reliable sources of goals for them. Betsson are offering

1.68 on “both teams to score”, which seems backable enough, but I’m happy to add “over 2.5 goals” so that we get a juicier price of 2.29.

This bet has landed in six out of the last seven Nottingham Forest games, as much as West Ham are struggling at the moment they really, really shouldn’t draw a blank away to Nottingham Forest. “Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals” here at 2.29 is my last pick for this weekend.

Good luck!

PS: Please note that the odds might have changed after writing and publication.

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George Fotev

George Fotev

Sports writer who is responsible for the Sportal's cricket, rugby, tennis and UFC betting content, as well as football betting tips.

George Fotev

George Fotev

Sports writer who is responsible for the Sportal's cricket, rugby, tennis and UFC betting content, as well as football betting tips.

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